My analysis for Local Transport Today
Many Local Transport Today readers will be hoping for a new Government which will address the underfunding of local transport, unlock genuine devolution of responsibility , and get behind radical, climate-focussed policies designed to promote modal shift and reduce the need to travel. So, how likely is all this, asks Jonathan Bray, as he reflects on the policy pledges so far ?
As ever, transport, climate and local government issues have not taken centre stage in this election campaign, with traditional political preoccupations like the cost of living , tax, crime, immigration and health more to the fore . Meanwhile random meme-worthy ‘gaffes’ , and internal party spats are also helping to shape voters’ impressions.
Away from the headlines, the future landscape is nonetheless being shaped – with the frontrunners for victory, the Labour party, still somewhat of an unknown quantity on transport beyond their frequent statements about the future of bus and rail.
Much will derive from the wider context – which is that Labour want to broadly stick to the current Government’s public spending framework , with a modest amount of targeted taxation of friendless special interests and commensurately modest additional targeted spending. As a companion article in this issue by David Leeder explores , the financial constraints of the inherited legacy and the realities of market economics , mean their will be no funding tap turned on by incoming Chancellor Rachel Reeves, and if wider ambitions on expenditure are to be met this inevitably means they are dependent on there being economic growth . Thismay or may not actually happen, quickly or at all, because of much wider forces at play – and given the timeline and scale of putting in place the economic interventions that Labour propose, it probably means no major loosening of the straightjacket in the short or even medium term
One positive could be a new approach to providing long term funding certainty – and less gimmicky and resource -hungry ‘competition funding’ distraction – for both local government and for national infrastructure. If this came to pass then it would be a most welcome development for local transport – depending, of course , on there actually being a reasonable level of that funding available.
Labour leaders locally will certainly also be looking for more generous funding support given that usually national governments skew local government funding towards the areas that vote for them. The same will be true in Wales , which is still reeling from the brutal financial settlement that the brief Truss premiership gave them. However, given the starting point for local government spending after years of cuts, and Labour’s broad commitment to the existing public spending framework, it could be that for many local authorities there will be a period of austerity-lite at a time when their staffing levels are already minimal to work on transport initiatives, let alone fund them .
Another stand out policy area affecting transport that is not financially dependent , is the re-shaping of the planning system – long proposed ( but not implemented when in Government ) by most of the parties, and now firmly endorsed by Labour. Its intent is the speeding up of private sector development (especially housing) and particularly on brownfield sites- even in the Green Belt. Its manifesto says this will be done with appropriate safeguarding for biodiversity, quality standards and climate resilience. To match this pledge – and hopefully bring more sustainable and less car-dependent new developments ( including promised New Towns)- would require a big shift in the business model of private sector volume housebuilders which is often predicated on monetising housing scarcity, low quality, as well as facilitating car dependency.
On public transport the main focus for Labour is most clear – returning rail and bus services to public control. The long awaited Great British Railways will inherit the remaining franchised services when they fail or expire. Meanwhile Labour say they will knock the rough edges off the Conservatives’ bus franchising legislation in order to further accelerate the pace of change in both urban areas and potentially beyiond . As public control of public transport becomes the norm again , the opportunity arises for this to become more than an funding distribution and organisational change , but also a wider shift in accountability, ambitions and values. A mindset change to pro-active thinking – from caution to confidence.
Something to watch post-election will be how Labour works with the solid bloc of Labour mayors now in place across significant swathes of the country, especially those who are well-bedded in and know what that want , and how the system works – most notably Sadiq Khan and Andy Burnham. Looking back in time it was the odd-couple relationship between Ken Livingstone as London Mayor, and a New Labour national government, that after a more than frosty start ultimately worked together to successfully transform London’s public transport system. For a period at least Labour politicians at city region and (if the polls are correct) at UK level will have a significant shared mandate for change – something that comes about rarely.
Another area is much less well-mapped – what happens next on road network development , vehicle taxation, road user charging (locally and nationally) and low emission zones. We have seen a mixed approach from Labour leaders at the sub-national level. Some have fought to get schemes through on the principled grounds of public health or climate, some have stayed on the sidelines to wait and see, whilst others have said they are against it on the grounds of the impact on low income car users. And then there’s Mayor Sadiq Khan who having fought the good, but bruising, fight on ULEZ has seemingly decided not to go the next step on road user charging. Kier Starmer actually turned his fire on Sadiq Khan last year on ULEZ,after the Uxbridge by-election wobble rather than providing support. Unsurprisingly the Labour manifesto has nothing to say on any of these topics (indeed, concerningly, it laments the failure to deliver more road schemes). However, technocrats love technocratic solutions like road user charging, so a managerial rather than ideological Labour Government might be expected, like the then new Labour Prime minster Harold Wilson sixty years ago, to want to harness a ‘scientific revolution’ to modernise British industry and drive economic progress: “the Britain that is going to be forged in the white heat of this revolution will be no place for restrictive practices or for outdated methods on either side of industry.”
The same thinking seems always there, simmering away in the background especially with electric vehicles undermining the existing vehicle taxation regime, not to mention all the joys of AI and driverless cars and the new jobs Governments think those sectors can bring ( until they take them away …).
Then there’s the pathway to Net Zero, of course. My guess is that Labour nationally are more likely to focus on the presentational/technological fix ‘get out of jail’ card on the decarbonisation of transport ,which is to get behind the transition to electric vehicles, than they are to out in place a pricing regime for vehicles which promotes traffic restraint and modal shift. Instead we can just hope such measures will continue to be implemented in fits and starts locally.
The Conservatives , meanwhile , in their dying days , have re-stated their love for the motorist , and moved to make LTNs , traffic restraint, ULEZ and 20mph limits both a culture war and a party political dividing line. Whilst no doubt seen as a way of shoring up their core vote ,and fending off the threat from their right from Reform UK in appealing to ‘White Van man’ ,it may damagingly have re-set the mood music for transport policy. If this approach continues after the election (even if the Conservatives are not in power ) then it is not good news for progressive local transport policy. Especially, given that if Labour is elected nationally, then the usual pattern is that the Conservatives start to do better in local elections, and nationally will be looking for weak links in Labour’s armour .
If the Labour and Conservatives transport plans are not to your taste , the Lib Dems manifesto has rather more detail, and much in it that many Local Transport Today readers will doubtless like. As part of a coalition government , it might be a helpful force for good if transport was one of the top tier issues that becomes a condition of their participation. It wasn’t really in the first David Cameron Government , but Norman Baker as Transport Minister was one beacon of hope.
Perhaps this time, if there are more Lib Dem and Green MPs at Westminster ,it could help in developing parliament’s green conscience as well as being a rallying point of the disaffected Labour progressive vote which election mathematics means it doesn’t need to worry much about now, but may need to try to win back in the future.
So in summary, like it or not , transport is not a big issue in the election or for the likely new Government . Sadly ,there’s no John Prescott this time to bang the drum. Early and radical decarbonising moves on road building plans, traffic restraint, transport taxation and modal shift look highly unlikely. There could be more stability and freedom for local transport funding , but it might still be at levels way below the much missed pre-austerity era. Public control of public transport operation does looks set to be the norm , but it’s in the planning and design of overall transport provision and its link with housing and development that the power for change lies . Have you heard anyone in Labour talking about that? I haven’t. And in the new push for quick increases in housebuilding there lies the risk of yet another tidal wave of sprawl and car dependency. Let’s hope the many local transport authorities now in Labour hands can do their bit to steer things in a better direction
But first , let’s see what the voters have to say.